19 Comments

“Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens

Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page

Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. “

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

Expand full comment

My takeaway from this article was the quote from the two republican senators that totally mirrors the blind imperialism of the current democratic administration, putting the folly of any real voter choice in this country in stark relief.

With 2022 just around the corner, what exactly are our real options for change? Bubkis. Squat. Nada. Zilch. Zero.

Oh, we can tweak tax policy here and there; we can have less wokeness in public discourse; we can redefine who gets what regarding public assistance, but the overall trajectory of empire remains on course.

America has some of the lowest voter participation of any developed country, and those who don't vote tell interviewers the main reason is they feel that voting will make no difference in their lives. We're told by our media that this amounts to apathy on their part instead of what it is: a totally valid assessment of our politics' actual priorities.

I imagine elites are fine with this lack of participation, and for the others who split their votes between democrats and republicans, I'd have to imagine that elites are just fine with that too.

Expand full comment

No doubt

Expand full comment

While it's certainly true that US elections are pretty rotten, it's also certainly true that they are vastly superior to Saudi Arabia's (non-elections). The relatively good deal US citizens get is almost certainly largely due to their enfranchisement (which strongly correlates with good treatment in general). In going for too much and making statements like this you compromise your ability to effectively criticize things like US press coverage of Venezuelan elections while denigrating a thing which has considerable value for the average citizen.

The truth about the efficiency of various voting systems in available as a chart showing bayesian regret ranges for different systems at the bottom of this page: https://rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig.html

. Saudi Arabia's system is effectively "random winner", which tends to produce considerably worse results than even the plurality voting system used in the US. The fact that the world's greatest current atrocity (Yemen) was initiated and continues to be led by a young random winner thug is consistent with the estimate provided there.

More details on bayesian regret:

https://rangevoting.org/BayRegExec.html

https://rangevoting.org/BayRegDum.html

Expand full comment